Gemdale Group (600383): Performance meets the underestimation of both offense and defense in the centralized settlement period

Gemdale Group (600383): Performance meets the underestimation of both offense and defense in the centralized settlement period
1H19 profit 0.80 yuan, an annual increase of 51%, in line with expectations of Gemdale’s 1H19 results: operating income of 22.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 49%, net profit attributable to the mother of 3.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 52%, corresponding to zero profit.80 yuan, consistent with the announcement of pre-increasing results. The high profit growth mainly benefited from the accelerated project carry-over and the higher gross profit 佛山桑拿网 level of the carried-over projects. In the first half of the year, the company’s real estate business settlement income increased by 54% to US $ 20 billion per year (mainly benefiting from an average settlement price increase of 41% to 14,635 yuan / square meter), and the settlement gross profit margin increased by 2 over the same period last year.1 up to 40.4%.After-tax comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 3.4 excellent to 31.5%, the net profit attributable to mother increased by 0.3 up to 16.2%. The financial side is generally stable, and the net debt ratio has increased marginally due to increased investment.The company’s net debt ratio at the end of the period increased 21 times to 78% from the beginning of the period, mainly due to the increase in investment expenditure and the consumption of cash in hand (while the interest rate resisted the earlier growth of 13%).The initial operating cash inflow increased by 50% each year, and the cash in hand was maturity-resistant within one year.7 times, short-term debt repayment pressure is not great.In the first half of the year, the company’s average financing cost was 4.87%, a low level in the industry. The minimum budget for development trends is expected to reach 2000 ppm.From January to July, the company achieved contracted / sale area of 1004 trillion / 4.98 million square meters, an annual growth of 31% / 15%, corresponding to an average sales price increase of 14% to 20167 yuan / square meter.We expect the company to gradually achieve 2000 trillion under the support of over 3000 trillion saleable value, corresponding to a growth rate of 23%. We expect to continue to increase the price of land in the second half of the trend.The area of land acquired by the company in the first half of the year increased by 21% to 6.75 million square meters per year, and the amount of land acquired decreased by 3% year-on-year to US $ 55.4 billion (the corresponding equity ratio increased by 6 substitutes to 54% over the same period of the previous year).The price dropped by 20% to 8,207 yuan / square meter, accounting for 41% of the current average selling price (61% in the same period last year, 50% in 2018), of which the land acquisition amount in first- and second-tier cities accounted for 77% (80% of the same period last year).We expect that with the cooling of the land market in the second half of the year, the company will seize the opportunity to acquire land, continue to increase the area of land acquisition, and the average price of land will decline. The initial materials maintain a dividend ratio of not less than 30%.We expect the company to maintain a dividend ratio of more than 30%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 2019 / 2020e6.0% / 7.1%, significantly higher than the average level of A-share developers we cover4.9% / 5.8%. Earnings forecasts and estimates We maintain the company’s 2019/2020 earnings forecasts unchanged.Currently leading trades at 5.5/4.The 7x 2019/2020 P / E ratio is significantly lower than the average level of 四川耍耍网 A-share developers we cover.Maintain Outperform Industry Rating and Target Price 16.17 yuan, corresponding to 7.5/6.4x 2019/2020 target price-earnings ratio and 35.5% upside. Risks are mainly laid out Tighter than expected urban land planning policies.