Perfect World (002624) follow-up comment: first quarter performance growth reaches the forecast limit
Event: Perfect World released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 quarterly report. The profit growth rate for the first quarter of 2019 reached the upper limit of the notice, and the non-net profit was significantly 南宁桑拿 increased.
The company achieved revenue of 80 in 2018.
3.4 billion, an annual increase of 1.
31%, net profit attributable to mother 17.
0.6 billion, an increase of 13 in ten years.
38%, net profit after deduction to return to mother 14.
4.7 billion, an annual increase of 3.
54%, EPS is 1.
3 yuan / share.
The company achieved revenue of 20 in the first quarter of 2019.
4.2 billion, an increase of 13 in ten years.
26%, 19% MoM (Affected by the film and television confirmation cycle, the general growth rate of film and television confirmation revenue in the fourth quarter), net profit attributable to mothers
8.6 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.
95%, an increase of 24 from the previous month.
9%, net profit after deduction 4
6.3 billion, an increase of 56 in ten years.
77%, an increase of 35.
38%, EPS is 0.
35 yuan / share.
Game business: Ten years of growth in terminal games.
3%. The mobile world ‘s “Perfect World” mobile game performed well in the first quarter, and its new product reserves are abundant.
In 2018, the company’s game business revenue totaled 53.
8.9 billion, exceeding the actual value4.
Looking at the split, the revenue from terminal games reached 21.
96 billion (+ 10% year-on-year.
3%), which performed very well against the background of the overall growth of the scale of the terminal game market. The growth was mainly due to the outstanding performance of Deep Sea Trek and the continuous and stable contribution of traditional terminal games; mobile game revenue was 27.
100 million, a decrease of 12% before, mainly due to 1) the natural position of the existing game flow, 2) the mobile game “Song of Fire” is recognized as net income, and 3) the suspension of version approval has caused a large number of new products in the company to fail in the second half of the yearGoing online, we expect that the release of the version number approval this year will significantly increase the growth rate of mobile terminal revenue; console game revenue will be 4.
63 billion, 10 from the previous decade.
9%. This gradual decrease is due to the company’s re-launch of new products on the host computer side in 18 years. The revenue of “Nightless Winter Night OL” naturally shifts. It is estimated that the company’s “DON’TEVEN THINK” and “Torchlight II” reserves in 19It is expected to contribute new increments on the line.
The growth of the company’s game business in Q1 2019 is mainly from the “Perfect World” mobile game. We expect the flow to contribute about 800 million in March. It is the first explosive product released by Tencent in 19th generation. It will continue to replace the TOP3 iOS bestseller list. It is expected that the company will research and develop another two-dimensional mobile game “Yunmeng Shigege” by Tencent on its own. We expect that the company’s mobile game gross margin level will be significantly improved.
At present, the company’s game products include 15 mobile games, 5 PC and console games, and 4 independent games. The categories include MMORPG, 2D, Women’s, Sandbox, Roaming Link, ARPG, SLG, Roguelike, Open World, Card.A variety of game types and alternatives such as cards, and the company also has a long-term cooperation agreement with Google to increase the layout of overseas game markets.
Film and television business: TV drama revenue growth is maximized, and gross profit margin is reduced.
The company’s 2018 TV drama business revenue was 17.
4.9 billion, an increase of 55 in ten years.
1%, under the background of the industry’s policy, capital and other multiple blows, to achieve rapid income growth.
The gross profit margin improved the interest rate. In 2018, the company’s TV drama business gross profit margin was 34.
4%, a decrease of nearly 19 units over 17 years.Judging from the company’s current TV drama reserves, there are 9 TV dramas that have been produced, 10 TV dramas in post-production, another 3 dramas in shooting, and 14 dramas in preparation.There was an increase last year, and we expect the company’s TV drama business to remain relatively stable in 2019.
The theater business was successfully divested, and the artiste brokerage and variety business are expected to remain stable.
The company officially divested the perfect cinema business with July 2018, and the company’s cinema revenue in 2018 was 5.
07 billion, the film and television business in the first half of 19 have a certain impact on the revenue side.
Three expenses: Basically maintained stable, and the financial expense ratio has dropped significantly.
Company expenses during the year 39.
4%, a slight increase from 2017, and costs increased by 41 during 19 years.
48%, a slight decrease from the same period last year.
Judging from the sales expense ratio, the company’s sales expenses in 2018 were 10.
96%, 9% in the first quarter of 2019, which is basically stable; in terms of management expense ratio, the company’s management expense expenditure for 18 years26.
36%, which was basically the same in the earlier 17 years, and the first quarter of 19 administrative expenses 29.
95%, which is basically the same as that in the first quarter of last year. In terms of financial expense ratio, both the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 19 obviously decreased significantly.
In the first quarter of 2019, gross profit margin, net profit margin increased significantly, and profitability of key products was prominent.
The company’s overall gross margin for the first quarter of 2019 was 68.
11%, an increase of nearly 7 units compared to the first quarter of last year, with a net interest rate of 23.
82%, an increase of nearly 2 units compared with the same period last year. The company’s “Perfect World” mobile game and “Youth Fight” TV series have expanded their profitability. Based on the revenue contributed by the “Deep Sea Trek” end game in the same period last year,Still get a significant improvement.
Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2020 to be 82.
3.1 billion, 90.
79 trillion, with an annual increase of 2.
30%; net profit attributable to parent company is 21 南宁桑拿 respectively.
5.1 billion, 24.
500,000 yuan, an annual increase of 26.
The corresponding EPS is 1.
64 yuan, 1.
86 yuan, 2018xPE is 16 times.
The company’s current film, television and game business is organized in an undistorted manner with rich content reserves and reasonable estimates. Investors are advised to pay close attention and maintain a “Buy” rating!
Risk reminders: 1) Risk of delayed product launch; 2) Risk of brain drain; 3) Risk of policy supervision.